The MA's are constricting the price downward, if 40 wasn't such a strong support level we would've been through it about an hour ago. Not much support below it, but the longer it stays above it the safer it will become as the MA's sit above it. All depends on the US open this afternoon, if bad there is a real risk of a breakout. If good we may get above the MA's but I would doubt that.
RM



