Thread: The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from ralph00: That's because what Evans says is irrelevant. Markets make opinions and the Oracles at the Fed are no different. If the economy keeps improving, stocks continue melting up, and the 10 and 30 year bonds continue to get literally destroyed, the Fed will tighten sooner and with more force than is expected. If the 10 year is at 4.75 come March, the Fed will tighten 50bp before July - book it. I disagree. The fed...

I think we can admit that fall 2008 was one of the more unique periods in fnancial market history. We can throw out that example as an outlier. In any case, the Fed was completely wrong in not following the market there - and they quickly became aware of that and lowered rates to zero over the next 8 weeks. Another example might be summer 2007, when some of the subprime crap began hitting the fan. Several Fed guvs were trotted out to say they...

Quote from Daal: Bill Gross on hedge funds "Actually their wizardry in my opinion has little to do with buying or selling the right stocks at the right time and everything to do with leverage. If I structure a portfolio putting $10m long into a bunch of stocks, and $8m short into another bunch of stocks. Then my gross leverage is 1.8 but my net long exposure is 0.2. Leverage in a fund can indicate lower risk , because if employed right...

Who needs TARP funds when fed is loaning out 100's of billions @ zero . lol Fed Unveils Details on $1 Trillion in Lending, Doesn't Identify Borrowers By Scott Lanman June 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve unveiled its most detailed picture yet of its record $1 trillion expansion of credit, as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke responds to congressional pressure for greater transparency from the central bank. For the first time, the Fed...

Quote from ralph00: I'll say it right now ... recovery will be weak and greenshooters are idiots. As I've said before on this thread, I mostly agree w/yoy regarding these macro issues. That doesn't mean we're going back to conditions of last fall and winter EVER AGAIN. That was a once in a lifetime thing. If you missed or played GBP/JPY going from 200 to 120 in a space of a few months, or COF (to name one crap fin'l)...

Quote from ralph00: I've talked to a couple of brokers about them. At the big houses, I'm hearing $10M minimum account size to start buying CDS. At a couple of places I've never heard of, its more like $1-$2M. The other great idea I'm hearing was from Jim Chanos' interview the other day. He's shorting Aussie commodity producers on the idea that China is Dubai times 1000. If China does go kablooyee, all of those...

Quote from Daal: UST report of banks bailed out by TARP http://www.financialstability.gov/i...ionSnapshot.htm Same thing, little lending, bank balance sheets contracting See your point and what bothers me is this: US & other govt see that stimulus money ends up paying back loans and not enough spending. People saw glimpse of bad times and are now scared having a loan and want off the hook. All predictable. Stimulus unexpectedly continues...

Quote from makloda: This actually would be my one and only criticism of Covel. He makes it sound like ANYBODY can successfully create and follow a mechanical system and make money like clockwork. IMO most people are not cut out for it. Most people can't live with the idea of being in a constant drawdown for 50% of the calendar months. They will fail following their system and skip signals/miss entries and exits/exit the system at the...

Daal, Great call on PPD. Should be interesting in the coming weeks and months. Are you still short? Are you able to share your target price?

Quote from Daal: I like the CDS idea. IB doesnt have them but even then I'm not wealthy enough to bet in these. However if the next credit crisis will be at the sovereign level I do know that equities will likely fall a lot Roubini says gold is prone to collapse in such a scenario as well. Agree?