Thread: RaleighWx's Winter 2009-10 Forecast

^^ That was my point- most outlooks weren't nearly as cold/snowy as 08-09 verified to be........ Matt

MetsRule47 wrote: ^^ That was my point- most outlooks weren't nearly as cold/snowy as 08-09 verified to be........ Matt But don't forget the pattern most predicted. Most predicted a brutally cold December followed by a very mild January. It was exactly the opposite. Yet some (notably JB) tried to claim victory because the average of the two months was what was predicted. Then the warmth was supposed to return the first week of...

This past winter was not bad at all. There were multiple snow events, and most, if not all ended up with higher accumlations that the ones predicted for my area.

He's bascially calling for a mild start to winter around here, before we turn colder sometime after Christmas. Not good news for those who want to see winter weather sooner: http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1

Funny I posted the same thing many weeks ago. Do not know where i said it though. I thought a brief shot of cold air with some snow showers then mild for dec until mid jan where we should get into a nice pattern. I would love it to be mild for nov/dec then get the pay off when it counts. Though the warmer air would last a little longer than I want (most of dec). again no one knows what will happen. If they were always right that person would...

Like I said with my Winter Outlook, it's not built for accuracy but for fun. No one is going to nail down every aspect, and for the most part everyone will have some glaring mistake at some point. That is why I tend to shy away from calling it a "forecast". To me a forecast is mostly reliable with a majority of the variables knocked out. I prefer the term "outlook". But I know some people will say...

Jimrin1967 wrote: I kind of thought second half winter as well. I also see 1992-93 as a potential analog and that winter started out very mild but then ended quite well. Actually the winter kicked off with a monster storm december 1 0th to 13th i believe, started as heavy snow , to rain to heavy snow, catskills got buried. January was rather tranquil, the february and of course March were great months.