Thread: Math Question

That seems right - thanks for the help!

Bear in mind, it's not about the actual scenario, it's just about the math (don't make it too complicated!). Haha! I do have that problem at times. Well is that first answer by Heidi correct? Starting with 95 people I was then going to multiply that by .05 and then you get 4.75 which you subtract from the 95 and it equals 90.25 and that is the same as what Heidi answered for the following year. If I was to continue to do so,...

(1-0.05)^10 Google tells me that is just under 60%. http://tinyurl.com/2e9rru

Hmm, well I'm not sure how to account for the possibility of people getting sick repeatedly. If we were to assume that each person would only get sick ONCE, then you'd just multiply the population by 95% each year to get the number of healthy folks. End Yr 1: 95 people Yr 2: 90.25 Yr 3: 85.74 Yr 4: 81.45 Yr 5: 77.38 Yr 6: 73.51 Yr 7: 69.83 Yr 8: 66.34 Yr 9: 63.02 Yr 10: 59.87 healthy people. Which would leave 40-41 sick people. But,...

you have to look at this like an odds probablity because thats what it is. So you have a 5% chance to get sick ever year, thats a 1 in 20 chance, over 10 years. Look at it the same way you would treat rolling a 20 sided die ten times, what are the odds that at some point you are going to roll a 1-5 within 10 rolls. So the first year you have a 1 in 20 chance of getting sick but the odds over 10 years works like the : X= Overall chance to get...

it stays at 5% unless that person increased his or her risk factors in risky behavior (jumping off a clif ,smoking ,eating too much, laisyness, or has suicidal tendancies..)

Using the facts you have given us, then it will always be 5%. thats how it started and without more facts, thats how it will end

Of course what gilliking is doing is statistical nonsense. Every year is unique. It is possible that the same 5% get sick every year, because they are weak. This kind of math drives our taxes through the roof. Statistically, we have x population and y crimes commited by x. Realistically, the crimes are being comitted by the same people over and over, thus skewing the numbers. I am not proposing this, but, if parole was halted, and people...