Is the Worst Over? | Thread profile

Excerpt from Think For Yourself by Robert P. Crawford ".... when the great majority of people expect a certain calamity to come, it does not come because they have taken all the precautions to be ready for it. Hurricanes do not kill people when people have prepared for them. When people expect still worse financial conditions, they liquidate everything that can be liquidated and ...

Quote: Soultrader [size=2] I have to agree with Ali al-Naimi. The crowd has been led to believe we are facing an oil crisis. Is that really so? There are massive reserves available in Brazil and now Iraq is auctioning its oil fields. My view is that with high oil prices, technology to use other sources of energy ...

As you probablly know I am quite a fan of Tim Morge (though un-affiliated apart from owning his book). Coincidently I just got notified of a new article at www.medianline.com Tim talks about fundamental conditions (inflation in particular) and shows a trade at the end. Several interesting points including why he tries to be extra careful trading when he has an opinion . From the article my...

I'm seeing signs of at least a short term bottom, but still believe we'll be in a bear market for several more months. The technicals and fundementals are pretty awful for the market (long term).

That's an excellent quote, James. And you have some solid reasoning combined with a clearly bullish candle pattern. You have to trade what you see, not what you feel. But nonetheless, we probably shouldn't completely ignore the fundamentals either. My personal opinion is that I don't believe the sun will really rise on equities until we see house prices start to stabilize. Until then, ...

The markit ABX indexs have been interesting to watch through this whole thing. This last selloff looks like the AAA paper finally was hammered nicely more than the junk paper. Paul Van Eeden is my fav macro guy, he thinks the best long term bet here is to short long bonds and bet that the yield curve has to steepen to clear the system. http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/ind...ediaplayer/ ...

I say no, the worst is not yet over. A few political reasons which you may or may not disagree with. Obviously, politics is typically very opinionated. 1 - The $600 stimulas checks were not because our government loved us. But since the vast majority of GDP is from consumer spending, $600 would cause that spending to artificially inflate. We all know what the technical term of a recession is,...

Quote: james_gsx 1 - The $600 stimulas checks were not because our government loved us. But since the vast majority of GDP is from consumer spending, $600 would cause that spending to artificially inflate. We all know what the technical term of a recession is, and with the elections coming up you do the math. Neither ...

Quote: Sledge So this $600 that was intended to "stimulate the ecomomy" is doing nothing but allow people to "survive" a little nicer until it evaporates. The governments idea that people would take that $600 and go out and buy big ticket items appears to exploded in their face....