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^^ Of course it's 240h out- don't gas up the snowblowers or anything. But when you consider the (for now) run-to-run continuity, the fact that it's on more than one model, and how many people are going for an early beginning to winter, I know I'm officially on "possible first flakes" alert......... Matt

How accurate are long term forecasts? I would think that the majority of them are best guesses, as anything could happen.

Am up at 6am on a Saturday to enjoy the 726 am sunrise. Figure will gain an hr of sleep tonight so lost it this morning. BTW great line Chris on who Snow's lover is. Started the day with a laugh

First monthly snowfall contest for December is up now. Deadlines for bonus points are on every Monday beginning with 11/09, before the final deadline to enter on 11/30: http://tristateweather.yuku.com/topic/20880

Funny I posted the same thing many weeks ago. Do not know where i said it though. I thought a brief shot of cold air with some snow showers then mild for dec until mid jan where we should get into a nice pattern. I would love it to be mild for nov/dec then get the pay off when it counts. Though the warmer air would last a little longer than I want (most of dec). again no one knows what will happen. If they were always right that person would...

The last two years most winter forecasts would have to get better to suck. But we shall see.

12z GFS is really cold at the end of the run. Highs in the 20's and lows in the teens for mid November lol.

Like I said with my Winter Outlook, it's not built for accuracy but for fun. No one is going to nail down every aspect, and for the most part everyone will have some glaring mistake at some point. That is why I tend to shy away from calling it a "forecast". To me a forecast is mostly reliable with a majority of the variables knocked out. I prefer the term "outlook". But I know some people will say...

Jimrin1967 wrote: I kind of thought second half winter as well. I also see 1992-93 as a potential analog and that winter started out very mild but then ended quite well. Actually the winter kicked off with a monster storm december 1 0th to 13th i believe, started as heavy snow , to rain to heavy snow, catskills got buried. January was rather tranquil, the february and of course March were great months.