Thunderstorms - Discussion & Analysis | Forum profile

I've scrutinised the potential on this outlook since last night and keep coming up with the same mis aligning for instability to shear. ie when one overlay looks interesting I couple it with another and get a rather poor outlook regarding any risk potential. The classification for this outlook as a 'Discussion' ATM looks to be the most realistic way of presenting the rather apparent limited ...

The report about the chimney stack - perhaps that was taken aloft?

UPDATE 7pm As per earlier forecast with prime risk centred over northern sector of Sussex through to northern sector of Kent. Reasoning behind this suggestion is based on the best convergence of surface moisture should be realised slightly inland from the south coast. The breakaway upper trough slides slowly east during the outlook period but must utilise the best moisture from surface ...

For posting guidance in general, please see: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/threa d-view.asp?tid=24...

12.30am Sat UPDATE ; SLIGHT RISK Based on the most recent model update risk is extended specifically between 03Z-06Z central south through to SE UK. GFS slow the dry mid level punch to overrun by 03Z onwards!...the risk is likewise extended further to the SE UK. Continued sharp upper divergent jet stream will almost certainly increase convective potential over the next few hrs with the ...

The post-frontal troughs have been a feature lately. I think it was just such a feature that delivered a fantastic squall here on Sunday about an hour after the main line passed through. Anyway, I have half an eye on tonight's cold front and a quick look at winds up to 500mb show some impressive directional shear along the line. I expect this to gain more interest as the day progresses.

Yes, see http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/threa d-view.asp?tid=33...

Euclid - different to the french one listed above http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

Estofex level 1 for the southern half of the UK, reproduced courtesy of Estofex High pressure settles in over the NE-US/Newfoundland through this forecast, yielding a favorable pattern for a significant outbreak of true polar airmass far southwards over the N-Atlantic in conjunction with the strong cyclonic vortex north of Scotland. Downstream development is underway during the following 36h...

Maybe the last crack of the year for some lightning action for Essex/East Anglia? fingers crossed, would good for some late autumn/early winter storm photos.